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National Geographic’s Doomsday Preppers made a TV format out of people preparing for the end of the world: solar flares, EMPs, pandemics, nuclear war, a Yellowstone eruption. The show was entertaining, but it rarely asked the two questions that matter for a real household: how likely is each threat, and what preparation actually helps? This guide ranks ten classic doomsday scenarios using the best evidence from the agencies that track them, then shows how a small set of preparations covers most of them.
Short version: The threats with the strongest evidence of affecting ordinary Americans are the less cinematic ones: pandemics, extreme space weather, attacks on the power grid, and scams and disruption driven by AI. Asteroids and a Yellowstone super-eruption are real but extremely unlikely in any lifetime. Whatever the scenario, the same core steps do most of the work: water, food, a way to get news without the internet or grid power, medications, a plan for long outages and knowing how to shelter in place.
The ten threats at a glance
The order below is our editorial judgment of how likely each threat is to affect a typical U.S. household within a lifetime, based on the evidence cited. It is not an official ranking, and the agencies quoted don’t rank these threats against each other.
| Threat | What the evidence says, and the prep that helps most |
|---|---|
| 1. Pandemic | Already happened: nearly 1.2 million U.S. COVID-19 deaths as of June 2024 (CDC). Prep: Masks, two weeks of supplies, medications |
| 2. Extreme space weather | G5 “extreme” storm observed May 2024; NOAA’s scale warns of possible grid collapse at this level. Prep: Long-outage plan, water, radio |
| 3. Cyberattack on infrastructure | U.S. agencies assess that state hackers are pre-positioning in critical infrastructure (CISA, 2024). Prep: Outage plan, cash, water |
| 4. AI-driven disruption | Scams and impersonation are documented now; catastrophic scenarios are debated. Prep: Family verification word, account security |
| 5. New Madrid earthquake | 25–40% chance of magnitude 6+ in 50 years (USGS, 2002). Prep: Secured furniture, water, first aid |
| 6. Dirty bomb | Never happened in the U.S.; most would not cause deadly radiation (NRC). Prep: Get inside, stay inside, stay tuned |
| 7. Nuclear war | Low probability, catastrophic impact; official shelter guidance exists. Prep: Shelter plan, water, radio |
| 8. EMP attack | Never happened as an attack; requires a nuclear detonation at high altitude. Prep: Long-outage plan, shielded spare radio |
| 9. Asteroid or comet impact | No known asteroid poses a significant risk for 100 years (NASA). Prep: None specific; general readiness |
| 10. Yellowstone super-eruption | About 1 in 730,000 per year (USGS). Prep: None specific; general readiness |
1. Pandemic
This is the doomsday scenario that has already happened in modern America. The CDC reports that “as of June 1, 2024, nearly 1.2 million people have died of COVID-19 in the U.S.” (CDC, About COVID-19). Supply shortages, school closures and job disruption affected millions of households that never had a serious case.
What helps: a two-week supply of food, water and household goods so you can stay home; a backup supply of prescription medications where your insurer allows it; well-fitting NIOSH-approved N95 respirators; and a plan for childcare and income if work stops. See our guides to surviving a pandemic and the supplies people needed most.
2. Extreme space weather (solar storms)
A solar flare itself won’t hurt anyone on the ground, but the geomagnetic storm that can follow a large solar eruption can stress power grids. On May 10, 2024, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center observed G5 “extreme” geomagnetic storm conditions at Earth. At that level, NOAA’s own space weather scales warn that “some grid systems may experience complete collapse or blackouts. Transformers may experience damage.” The same scale estimates about four G5 storms per 11-year solar cycle, so these are uncommon but not once-in-a-millennium events.
What helps: treat it as a possible long, wide-area power outage. Water, shelf-stable food, a hand-crank NOAA weather radio, and a plan for medical devices and refrigerated medicines cover most of it. Our free household power outage planner builds that plan for your household.
3. Cyberattack on the grid and other infrastructure
The 2010s fear of an “invasion from within” has a more concrete, documented modern counterpart. In a February 2024 advisory, CISA, the NSA and the FBI assessed that Chinese state-sponsored hackers known as Volt Typhoon are “seeking to pre-position themselves on IT networks for disruptive or destructive cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the United States” (CISA advisory AA24-038A). The advisory names the communications, energy, transportation, and water and wastewater sectors.
What helps: the same outage preparations as above, plus some cash at home in case card payments fail, and stored water in case water treatment or pumping stops. Use our emergency water calculator to work out how much your household needs.
4. AI-driven disruption
Doomsday preppers didn’t have this one on their list. Today’s documented harms are voice-cloning scams, impersonation and misinformation. The bigger “loss of control” scenarios are debated among researchers rather than established. Our separate guide, How to Survive the AI Apocalypse, separates what is happening now from what is speculative and lists six household steps, from a family verification word to phishing-resistant sign-ins.
5. New Madrid earthquake
The New Madrid Seismic Zone in the central Mississippi Valley produced a series of major earthquakes in 1811 and 1812. A U.S. Geological Survey fact sheet (FS-131-02) puts the chance of a magnitude 6.0 or larger earthquake there at 25–40% over 50 years, and a repeat of the 1811–1812 earthquakes (magnitude 7.5–8.0) at 7–10%. Prepper lore about the Mississippi River “becoming an ocean” goes far beyond anything in the USGS material, but a large quake could damage buildings, bridges and pipelines across several central states.
What helps: secure tall furniture and the water heater, know how to shut off gas, keep water and a well-stocked first aid kit, and learn “Drop, Cover, and Hold On.” Our earthquake survival guide covers the details.
6. Dirty bomb
A dirty bomb, or radiological dispersal device, combines ordinary explosives with radioactive material. It is a weapon of fear more than mass death. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission states that “most RDDs would not release enough radiation to kill people or cause severe illness – the conventional explosive itself would be more harmful to people than the radioactive material” (NRC backgrounder on dirty bombs). Cleanup and panic would be the larger problems.
What helps: the federal rule for any radiation emergency: “get inside, stay inside and stay tuned” (Ready.gov). See our guide to surviving nuclear terrorism.
7. Nuclear war
Nuclear war is the classic doomsday threat: low probability but catastrophic impact, and no one can honestly put odds on it. What is well established is that sheltering correctly saves lives outside the blast zone. Ready.gov’s nuclear explosion guidance says that after a detonation “you will have 10 minutes or more to find an adequate shelter before fallout arrives,” and to stay in the most protective location, such as a basement or the center of a large building, for the first 24 hours unless officials say otherwise, because radiation levels drop quickly.
About potassium iodide: the old version of this page suggested buying potassium iodide pills. The CDC says KI protects only the thyroid and only against radioactive iodine, and advises: “Do not take KI unless instructed by public health or emergency response officials or a healthcare provider” (CDC). It is not a general radiation pill. Read our guides on surviving a nuclear attack and nuclear winter.
8. EMP attack
A high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (EMP) requires a nuclear weapon detonated high above the country. It could damage electronics and the power grid over a very wide area. No such attack has ever happened, and its likelihood is tied to nuclear conflict. The damage estimates that circulate online vary enormously, and many are speculative.
What helps: the same long-outage plan as for solar storms. Many preppers keep a spare radio and small electronics in a sealed metal container. That is cheap, but its protection against a real EMP is untested at household scale. Our EMP attack guide and electronics protection guide go deeper.
9. Asteroid or comet impact
Large impacts have shaped Earth’s history, and NASA runs a planetary defense program to find and track near-Earth objects. NASA’s near-Earth object explainer, first published in 2019, is reassuring: “No known asteroid poses a significant risk of impact with Earth over the next 100 years” (NASA). JPL’s Sentry impact risk table tracks the current numbers as new objects are found and observed. “No known” is the key phrase: not every object has been discovered yet. Read more in our guides to asteroid impacts and comet collisions.
10. Yellowstone super-eruption
Yellowstone’s caldera has had three enormous eruptions in the past 2.1 million years, which is why it appears on every doomsday list. The USGS estimates the yearly probability of another caldera-forming eruption at about 1 in 730,000 (0.00014%), and notes that this figure rests on only two intervals between past eruptions. The USGS adds that this is roughly similar to the chance of a large (1-kilometer) asteroid hitting Earth. See Can We Survive a Yellowstone Eruption?
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What the doomsday list leaves out
The disasters most households will actually face are ordinary: hurricanes, floods, wildfires, winter storms and the long power outages they cause. They don’t make TV, but the same preparations protect you from them, and they are far more likely than anything on this list.
One set of preparations covers most scenarios
| Preparation | Scenarios it helps with |
|---|---|
| Stored water (at least 1 gallon per person per day for several days) in sturdy containers | Pandemic, space weather, cyberattack, earthquake, nuclear, EMP, everyday disasters |
| Two weeks of shelf-stable food (food supply calculator) | Nearly all |
| News without the grid or internet: a battery or hand-crank NOAA weather radio | Space weather, cyberattack, nuclear and radiation, EMP, earthquake |
| Backup power for phones, lights and medical devices, such as a portable power station | Space weather, cyberattack, earthquake, everyday outages |
| Medications, first aid and masks | Pandemic, earthquake, everyday disasters |
| A shelter-in-place plan (the basement or center of the building, and who goes where) | Nuclear, dirty bomb, severe weather |
| A family communication plan and verification word | All, especially AI-driven scams |
For a full checklist, start with our essential emergency supplies guide.
Why this page changed
Earlier versions of this page leaned on TV episodes, a 2012 news clip, a dead link about an asteroid “impact risk” that never came close, religious prophecy and an unsupported “World War III starts with invasion from within” scenario. They also promoted potassium iodide in a way that conflicts with CDC guidance. We rebuilt the list around current evidence from the CDC, NOAA, CISA, USGS, NRC, Ready.gov and NASA, and added the threats that evidence now supports.
How we researched this guide
Research method: This is a research-led summary of public agency sources, read on November 13, 2026: the CDC’s COVID-19 and potassium iodide pages; NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center’s May 10, 2024 G5 notice and its space weather scales; CISA advisory AA24-038A (February 2024); USGS fact sheet FS-131-02 (2002) and its Yellowstone supervolcano questions page; the NRC’s dirty bomb backgrounder; Ready.gov’s radiation and nuclear explosion pages; and NASA’s near-Earth object explainer with JPL’s Sentry table. The ranking is our own judgment, not an agency forecast. We give no odds where the sources give none. We are not emergency managers or scientists, and official instructions during a real emergency take precedence over this guide.
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A more likely scenario is more of a slow burn, rather than a sudden event. Particularly, ever increasing environmental problems, like access to potable water and global food supply shortages, combied with increasing numbers of refugees from areas hardest affected by climate change (fires, flooding, drought, loss of arable land, heat), will result in collapsing social order and a desperate populace. The large numbers of people displaced from there homes from climate change related affects will need to re-enter in other areas, causing a strain on existing infrastructures. Just how many Katrina’s can we rebound from? Picture this on a global scale. Where will all the people go? Make no mistake, desperate refugees competing for scarce resources will tax our system to a breaking point. How are you prepared to handle this?