How to protect yourself from the Coronavirus Outbreak (Updated April 8th 2020)
If you’ve been keeping up with the news, there is a brand new pandemic threat out in the loose to start off the new year. It’s referred to as Coronavirus and seems to have originated in China, in the city of Wuhan at a seafood wholesale market (at this point you’d have to be literally living under a rock to not have heard of COVID-19).
If you’re not familiar with the term Coronavirus, for context, both MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) and SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) fall into the category of Coronavirus. If you’ll recall, there were serious potential-pandemic concerns about the spread of both MERS and SARS, and this current Coronavirus is no different.
April 8th 2020 Update: COVID-19 has spread extremely rapidly through Europe and the US. There are now 1,500,000+ reported cases worldwide with the death toll over 88,000+. Many countries around the world have put severe travel restrictions in place, and a number of European countries have ordered national lockdowns or quarantines.
The CDC has also officially recommended that you wear a mask when you go outside (this does not mean that if you are wearing a mask, it is safe to go outside. It simply means that if you must go outside for essential business, that you should wear a mask).
Our friends at American Gunner are providing PM2.5 masks and asking that you only pay for shipping and handling. Click here if you want to get one, supplies are obviously limited. These aren’t type of mask that medical staff use, so you aren’t diverting resources away from medical professionals.
The Coronavirus Situation in the USA (Updated April 8th)
As of April 8th, the number of cases in the US has roughly tripled since our last update on March 30th. On March 30th, there were 144,000+ cases in the US. On April 8th, there are 425,000+ cases. There have been 14,262 deaths, up from 2,573 as of ~10 days ago. That is a seven fold increase in deaths.
At this point, this virus has spread out of control, primarily due to the lack of proactive action taken by the President and the federal government (just a few of weeks ago, the president was playing the virus off as no big deal).
It is likely that this situation will be ongoing for multiple months, and the best we can do is try to slow it down in order to not overload the healthcare system which would result in many unnecessary deaths.
As of April 8th, the states that have had the most cases include New York (~138,000), New Jersey (~44,500), and Michigan (~19,000). The virus has spread extremely rapidly through the state of New York and neighboring New Jersey. It also appears to be accelerating in its spread in both Michigan and Louisiana. It is likely that many states will experience the same kind of rapid spread that New York has seen, especially in States where the state and local governments are slow to act. This is made more likely as there are still many people in the country who aren’t taking the situation seriously.
The majority of deaths have come in New York State where the death toll is nearing 5,489.
The Coronavirus Situation Internationally (Updated April 8th)
As of April 8th, internationally there has been roughly a doubling in the number of COVID-19 cases since our previous update 10 days ago. This is primarily due to it’s continued spread through multiple European countries. In Europe, there have been 675,000+ reported cases (up from 375,000 on March 30th) and 52,500+ deaths (up from 21,000 on March 30th).
Italy and Spain have been hit worst by COVID so far. Italy has ~140,000 cases with 17,500+ deaths, while Spain has 147,000 cases and 14,500+ deaths. German (112,000), and France (82,000) have all seen an increase in the number of cases as well. The spread of the pandemic through Europe at this point is inevitable – at best it can be slowed, but at this point it seems unlikely that it can be stopped completely. The biggest issue with the rapid spread of COVID-19 is the strain it is putting on healthcare resources – as we had predicted in our last update, this problem is now mirrored (or even worse) in the US where the average person has limited access to healthcare.
It is also likely that some countries are under-reporting figures due to a lack of testing – both Italy and Spain likely have more cases than are confirmed officially, whereas a country like Germany is doing widespread testing and is consequently “seeing” a much lower death rate. A portion of this probably has something to do with healthcare infrastructure, but the greater part of it has to do with the fact that Germany is testing as many people as possible and other European countries aren’t doing so.
Outside of Europe, Iran has also been hit hard – they’ve reported 67,000+ cases and 4,000+ deaths. South Korea has done an excellent job of controlling the spread of COVID – as of today, they only have ~10,000 cases, when 10 days ago they had ~9,500. There was a moment where it seemed like the country would be the new epicenter of the pandemic. Instead, they have managed to put a halt to the spread of the disease.
At this point, there are too many countries under lockdown, curfew, or some form of shutdown to list here. Most countries that have any significant number of cases have imposed either lockdowns or curfews.
In China, the spread of the disease has now more or less ended. Some restrictions are beginning to be lifted. In total, China saw ~82,000 reported cases and 3,000 deaths, although there is speculation that these numbers are under-reported.
In China, the city of Wuhan and entire province of Hubei has been placed under quarantine. All businesses other than essential services (grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals, etc) are closed. An estimated 60 million people are in quarantine in China as the country tries to slow the spread of the disease, with a total of 780 million people who are facing some form of travel restrictions. March 5th Update: Last week, we mentioned that there has been a sharp spike in the number of cases outside of China, with major outbreaks in Korea, Iran, and Italy. Since then, the number of cases in each of those countries has grown – there are now 6000+ cases in South Korea, 3850+ in Italy and 3500+ in Iran. We’re also seeing what seems to be an acceleration in the spread of the virus – there are now 12 countries that have 100+ cases. The virus seems to have gone past the tipping point and at this point it’s questionable whether or not the various governments of the world will be able to stop it spreading. Both Iran and Italy have seen 100+ deaths, and there have been 40+ deaths in South Korea. Feb 28th Update: In the past week, we have seen a sharp spike in the number of cases outside of China, with major outbreaks in Korea, Iran, and Italy. We’ve also seen a spike in COVID-19 deaths, particularly in Iran. This may be related to a lack of health infrastructure or the under-reporting of total cases, but for whatever reason, the mortality rate in Iran so far seems much higher than in other countries. In total, there have been 84 deaths outside of China from the disease so far, with 34 of those occurring in Iran. the far. Korea, Iran, and Italy have all overtaken Japan in their number of total cases, and currently South Korea has seen the most confirmed cases outside of China with 2337 infected. Cruise ships have also been hit hard by the COVID-19, with 705 people infected on various cruise ships and 6 deaths in total. The passengers of the affected cruises are quarantined until it can be demonstrated that they don’t have the COVID-19.
General Information about the Coronavirus
The Coronavirus situation has now officially been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization.
Note: To clarify a few terms that are being used largely interchangeably mainstream media:
COVID-19 is what scientists are calling the disease
SARS-CoV-2 is what scientists are calling the virus itself
We just thought we’d clarify this point so there are no misunderstandings. In colloquially usage, most people seem not to make the distinction, but if you’re listening to a scientists or expert speak, keep this distinction in mind.
There is speculation that this SARS-CoV-2 comes from bats and from there spread to humans. Experts say that human to human transmission is possible, but only when people are in close contact with each other (via respiratory fluids like saliva, snot, etc).
At the moment it does not appear there is extensive airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is suspected to also be possible through touching surfaces that have previously been touched by someone infected by the virus, but this does not currently seem to be the main method of transmission.
The primary risk of transmission comes from close contact with those infected. However, many people remain asymptomatic for an extended period of time (2 weeks or more), which is why SARS-CoV-2 is so tricky to contain. Some people also only experience very mild symptoms that are indistinguishable from the common cold/flu, which means that those who are infected may be passing it on without even realizing that they have it.
The latest figures (as of April 8th) show that there are 87,000+ reported dead from COVID-19 and 1.5 million+ reported cases.
80% of deaths have occurred in patients over the age of 65, and 75+% of those who need intensive care are people who had pre-existing health conditions like diabetes or cardiovascular/heart diseases.
Will this Virus Outbreak lead to a global pandemic?
To be frank, it seems unlikely at this point that this particular strain of COVID-19 will lead to a global pandemic (at least in the way that we think of the word “pandemic”). We say this for two reasons. Firstly, in the grand scheme of things, this strain, while definitely dangerous, is not incredibly lethal – latest figures show about 2-3% of people infected with it end up dying. This is significantly higher than the death rate for the flu, but in comparison with other Coronavirus pandemic threats, COVID-19 is not as deadly.
SARS had a death rate of 10%, and MERS has a death rate of about 35%. That being said, this could change if the virus mutates. The possibility of mutation increases as more people are infected. It is also suspected that some people are completely asymptomatic (they don’t show symptoms at all), which may be skewing these numbers such that COVID-19 appears more lethal than it actually is.
The other reason why we here at SoS (keep in mind we are not doctors nor epidemiologists) don’t believe that this COVID-19 will lead to a global pandemic is because it appears that governments around the world have taken swift measures to prevent its spread. While it will likely spread in China, and will probably affect the city of Wuhan quite severely, the travel restrictions both within China and internationally mean that it is unlikely that it will spread rapidly in other countries.
The above no longer seems to be true – the virus seems to have hit a tipping point where it may no longer be possible to contain in. There have been outbreaks in enough countries at this point that it is possible that we’re past the point of no return.
At this point, in Europe it appears that the spread of the pandemic can only be slowed, not stopped. At this juncture, this appears to be true in the United States as well, as the spread of the disease in the US has accelerated faster than every other region that has been affected (and the US now officially has the most cases). Again, we will reiterate that because this virus is comparatively less lethal than other pandemic threats, we don’t believe this is the “big one”. That being said, it serves as an example of how quickly a pandemic can get out of control even after reasonable initial containment efforts, and demonstrates very clearly that the modern world is not ready nor equipped for a true pandemic threat with both high virality and lethality.
Still, it’s entirely possible that we’re completely wrong. There are a number of scientists and experts who appear to be very alarmed by the sheer number of people who have traveled internationally from the affected region in China. Now that we’ve seen a significant outbreak in a country other than China, the possibility of a genuine pandemic has increased. Fortunately, mortality rates remain relatively low compared to previous pandemic threats like SARS or MERS.
The other thing to worry about is if the disease starts to transmit even more easily or becomes more deadly. If you hear about airborne transmission, then the threat of a true global pandemic increases massively, and the same applies if the death toll starts becoming much more severe.
Our Advice to Surviving the Coronavirus Pandemic
Along with all the typical advice that you’ll hear from healthcare professionals (wash your hands frequently, don’t touch your face, avoid large crowds, don’t go out if you’re sick, etc). We recommend the following:
- If you are in the high risk segment (you’re over 60 or you have existing health conditions), then you should be hunkering down and interacting with the world as infrequently as possible. The thing about this virus is it isn’t all that lethal for most people, but it is quite dangerous for a specific segment of the population – and it spreads very easily. If you are in the high risk segment, you want to avoid catching it at all costs.
- If you are not in the high risk segment, you should avoid close contact with friends and family who are in the high risk segment – the last thing you want to do is inadvertently expose them to the risk of catching it. Remember, for most people, symptoms can be relatively mild (and some people appear to be totally asymptomatic) – that means even if you feel 100% fine, it’s possible you’re spreading the virus. As such, we recommend you avoid those who are older or less healthy because what might have no affect on you could be lethal for them.
- Stock up on survival food. Even if it turns out that the true effects of this pandemic are relatively mild, people will panic regardless, and when people panic, it doesn’t matter whether or not that panic is justified – grocery stores and so forth will run out of supplies. For a long term stockpile that you can buy and have on hand for the next three decades, consider buying a few of the emergency survival food kits we recommend here as well – even if you don’t use them this time, they’ll probably come in handy at some point.
- Stock up on other essential supplies like first aid supplies, access to clean water and so forth. However, we urge you not to be that person who buys 10 tubes of disinfecting wipes or 20 bottles of hand sanitizer. If this is you, then you’re contributing to the panic. You do not need a 2 year supply of anything. Be sensible, and try to be conscientious of the rest of society when purchasing high demand goods. (Here at SoS, we don’t understand at all why people seem to be stocking up on toilet paper, which is in no way an ‘essential’ survival product.)
- The CDC is officially recommending that if you must go outside, that you should wear a mask. If you can’t get your hands on one, our friends at American Gunner are offering PM2.5 masks for free (you only pay shipping & handling). Supplies are limited – click here to get yours.
- Where possible, try to work from home. Avoid very close contact with people if you can. There’s no need to fully hunker down unless you are in the high risk segment, but we do recommend that people lessen social contact where possible.
- Remember this feeling, and know that the next pandemic will likely be far worse. We’re very lucky that COVID-19 is not that lethal. Most of the world is clearly drastically under-prepared for any kind of pandemic or outbreak of infectious disease. Imagine a virus that kills 10% of the infected, but spreads like this coronavirus does. At some point, that will happen. If you want to be ready for the next “big” pandemic where millions of people might die (this seems unlikely with COVID-19) – sign up for our newsletter and begin to prepare yourself for real survival situations.
How to Survive a Pandemic
If you are genuinely worried about the threat of a global pandemic, then the key thing is to be prepared. If you’re properly prepared, if and when it happens, you’ll be able to minimize the chances that you and your family are affected.
Ultimately, outbreaks of infectious diseases that lead to pandemics occur when disease is spread from one person (or animal) to another. If you can minimize your contact with the outside world for a prolonged period of time, you can pretty much guarantee that you won’t get sick (barring some very unfortunate circumstances).
There are some basic things that can help decrease your chances of getting sick in a pandemic situation. A lot of them are common sense, but we’ll list them here anyways.
- Wash your hands frequently, and whenever possible use alcohol based hand sanitizer, particularly after interacting with other people
- When washing your hands, wash for 20 seconds with soap.
- Wash your hands immediately after you sneeze or cough.
- Avoid crowded places when possible
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth with your hands. (Avoid touching your face in general).
- Avoid close contact with anybody who’s sick
- Clean and disinfect areas of your home/office that are touched frequently with disinfecting wipes or something similar
- If you do need to go into a crowded area (or if there is someone in your home or office who is sick), wear a surgical face mask, and in particular, encourage those who are sick to wear face masks (studies have shown that these are most effective when worn by those who are sick).
These are the recommendations given by government entities like the CDC.
How to really prepare to survive a deadly global pandemic
If you truly want to be ready for a genuine pandemic, then you need to go a step beyond the normal recommendations. If we’re imagining a pandemic akin to something like the Spanish flu, then things get much more serious. The Spanish flu killed 50 million people, or 3-5% of the world’s population at the time. If we took 4% of the current world population, that translates to more than three hundred million people dead – a catastrophic event that we’ve basically never seen before.
This number might even be optimistic. The world today is much more interconnected and far more crowded than it was in 1918 when the Spanish Flu pandemic occurred. A similarly dangerous pandemic could spread much faster and further.
If a pandemic is being spread person to person via airborne transmission, the best way to avoid being sick is to avoid interacting with the outside world. If you don’t come into contact with people (or places where there were people), then you won’t come into contact with sick people, which means you’re far less likely to get sick.
Unfortunately, most people are completely unprepared to hunker down for anything longer than a few days. If this describes you, then if and when a pandemic occurs, you will be forced to interact with the outside world because you won’t have the supplies or the equipment to survive.
That’s why you should start thinking seriously about prepping. Prepping is true disaster insurance – not the kind that an insurance company offers, but the kind that helps give you peace of mind that if anything truly catastrophic happens, you’re reasonably well prepared to deal with it (compared to the average person). The great thing about prepping is it’s insurance that covers almost any kind of disaster, natural or man made – hurricanes, earthquakes, war, and of course pandemics like the one that we could be facing right now.
Being properly prepared means covering your survival basic needs as governed by the survival rule of three. This includes ensuring that you have access to water and a stockpile of survival food. If you want to get a headstart on building up a stockpile of food, we recommend taking a look at our article on the best survival food kits.
It also wouldn’t hurt to be ready to bug out to somewhere with very low population density. If you want to plan to do this, then you’ll need to be ready with a bug out bag – in a true disaster, things move extremely quickly. Life could be normal one day and the situation could be catastrophic the next.
Survival Gear for Pandemics and Virus Outbreaks
In a true pandemic situation, you might also want to consider a hazmat suit – it may seem excessive right now, and you definitely wouldn’t wear one to work… But by having a hazmat suit in your basement or garage, you prepare for the worst. If we end up in a Spanish flu type situation and a hundred million people have died, nobody would judge you for wearing a hazmat suit if you were forced to go outside. While you could go with disposal hazmat suits that are single use, we recommend the Mira Safety hazmat suit – Mira are industry leaders in professional grade safety equipment, and these suits can be reused provided you follow the correct procedures in donning and doffing.
You can also get the Mira Safety Hazmat Suit on Amazon (currently sold out)
A less extreme precaution than a hazmat suit is to have a proper gas mask on hand. There are a number of standards laid out by various regulatory bodies for products like gas masks and respirators – for example, N95s filter out 95% of airborne particles, and P100s filter out 99.97% of airborn particles.
We recommend these Mira safety Gas Masks, which (along with their filters) can filter out 99.9999%+ of particulates. While wearing the lower standard N95s or P100s will decrease your chances of getting infected, if you are forced to go outside during a pandemic you’d rather not gamble, and the gas masks and filters from Mira Safety provide the most protection.
It may seem odd to wear a gas mask out into the world right now, but in the face of a genuine deadly pandemic, it could very well become the norm. It definitely wouldn’t hurt to have a few gas masks stored up as part of your survival preparations (whether you’re preparing for a pandemic or something else). These gas masks protect against a wide variety of harmful and toxic things that you might breathe in, including all known CBRN agents. CBRN stands for Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear. That means that these gas masks and filters aren’t just appropriate for pandemics, they’ll could be lifesavers in a variety of different catastrophic disaster scenarios.
So… Do you feel like you’re truly prepared for a global pandemic?
Now that we’ve covered the latest threats, we’ll move on to the big fear that most epidemiologists and scientists have – the fear of a deadly pandemic flu to match (or exceed) the Spanish flu of 1918.
This next portion of the article will help you understand the different flu types and how to protect yourself (when possible).
Influenza Term Definitions:
Seasonal (or Common) Flu – A respiratory illness which can be transmitted to other people. Most individuals have some immunity, and a vaccine is available.
Avian (or Bird) Flu – Influenza virus which occurs naturally among wild birds. Low pathogenic AI is commonly found in birds, and causes few problems.
H5N1 – Highly pathogenic flu which is deadly to domestic fowl, and can be transmitted from birds to humans. Currently, there is no human immunity and no vaccine is available.
Pandemic Flu – Virulent human flu which causes a global outbreak, or pandemic, of serious illness. Because there is little natural immunity, the disease can easily spread from person to person. Currently, there is no pandemic flu.
A fine government Web site on this subject is: pandemicflu.gov. Especially good is the Individuals & family planning page. Most of the information from this article can be found at this site.
Best Strategies For Protecting Against A Pandemic Flu
The best forms of protection against a pandemic are community strategies which delay or reduce its impact. Often called non-pharmaceutical interventions, such strategies may help reduce the pandemic until a vaccine is available.
As you plan, it is important to think about the challenges which you may face, particularly if a pandemic is severe. Below we cover some situations which may be caused by a severe pandemic, and ways to address them.
Possible Social Disruption
— Plan for the possibility that regular services–such as those provided by hospitals and other health care facilities, banks, stores, restaurants, government offices, and post offices–may be disrupted.
— Prepare backup plans in case regular public gatherings are canceled.
— Consider how to care for people with special needs, in case the services they require are no longer available.
Disruption of Work Routine
— Ask your employer if you may work from home.
— Ask your employer how business may continue during a pandemic. (See Business Pandemic Influenza Planning Checklist.)
— Plan for a possible reduction–or temporary loss–of income if you are unable to work, or the business you work for is closed.
— Ask your employer or union about leave policies during a pandemic.
Another matter which may seem a bit of “common sense”, but deserves mention: Take steps to limit the spread of germs by making good hygiene a habit.
— Wash hands frequently with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand cleaner.
— Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Clean your hands after coughing or sneezing.
— Put used tissues in a waste basket.
— Cough or sneeze into your upper sleeve if you don’t have a tissue.
— Don’t be a hero; stay at home if you are sick.
Stock supplies of water, as well as food that doesn’t easily spoil; during a pandemic you may not be able to find an open store with supplies. Also, remember that public waterworks services may be interrupted.
Make sure to store foods that:
— are non-perishable (will keep for a long time) and don’t require refrigeration
— do not require cooking, in case you are unable to cook
— require little or no water, so you can conserve water for drinking
Stocking supplies can also be useful in other types of emergencies, such as power outages and disasters. Make a checklist of items to have on hand for a long forced stay at home.
Knowing the facts is the best preparation for any pandemic. Identify trustworthy sources for reliable information.
— Reliable, accurate, and up-to-date information is available at www.pandemicflu.gov.
— Another source for information on pandemics is the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Hotline at: 1-800-CDC-INFO (1-800-232-4636). This line is available in English and Spanish, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. TTY: 1-888-232-6348. Questions can be e-mailed to email@example.com.
— Also look for information on your local and state government Web sites. Find available links to each state’s public health department at www.cdc.gov/other.htm.states
— Listen to local and national radio, watch news reports on television, and check your newspaper and other reliable sources of printed and Web-based information.
Examples of Potential Pandemic: Avian Flu
Avian Influenza is commonly referred to as the Bird Flu. However, that tells you very little. In fact, the name Bird Flu by itself is somewhat misleading. After all, the term could actually be referring to several different strains of virus carried by birds.
Along with this, Avian Influenza really refers to flu from viruses adapted to birds. Symptoms from such viruses can range anywhere from those of typical flu, to conjuntivitis, respiratory failure, pneumonia, and several other death- wielding ailments.
How’s that for not knowing what to expect?
In the past, there have likely been innumerable instances where flu from viruses adapted to birds have been, in some form, caught by humans. However, these have only reached pandemic proportions in three known instances.
In 1957, a strain of flu virus that emerged as the result of a recombination of human and avian viruses ( H2N2 ) wrought havoc on the world. Further, another ( H3N2 ) did the same in 1968.
Perhaps the most famous and deadly of pandemic avian flu situations occurred in 1918. In this instance, the ‘Spanish Flu‘ killed 500,000 people in the United States and over 50 million worldwide.
That’s right: 50 million dead.
Still, all of that is ancient history, right? After all, there’s nothing like that out there right now, so this article is merely blowing smoke.
Not quite true.
A strain of Avian Flu called H5N1 has caused the largest number of cases of severe disease and death in humans in recent years. This first became a supposed problem in 1997 in Hong Kong when- for the first time ever- an influenza A virus was transmitted directly from birds to people. During this episode, 18 people were hospitalized and six died. In order to control the outbreak, 1.5 million chickens were killed.
In addition – and perhaps most frightening – is the fact that there were rare situations where this virus spread from person to person in 1997.
You see, unlike the garden variety seasonal flu that sprouts only mild respiratory symptoms in most people, the disease caused by H5N1 was shown to follow an unusually aggressive course. In fact, in many situations H5N1 seems to cause an overwhelming immune response in people to, the point that their own immune systems in essence attack them.
Much like the Spanish Flu of 1918.
Still, despite outbreaks in parts of Europe, Asia, the Pacific, Africa, and the near East- particularly in regard to their animal populations- this virus has only left 167 people dead in 10 countries since 2003. That’s especially strange considering about half the people who have come down with it have died.
So why the low numbers? Simply because at present the virus rarely transmits from human to human. It seems that in order for a flu strain to truly become a pandemic threat to humanity, a protein that coats the virus’ surface called hemagglutinin must prefer to attach to cells in the human nose and windpipe.
Hence, why a sneeze in the earlier fictional situation would send a chill down Bill Angler’s spine.
The good news is that right now H5N1 still prefers to attach itself to the gastrointestinal tract of birds. Thus, the majority of exchanges with humans are due to direct contact with the animal, including its feces or secretions.
Unfortunately, viruses change all the time. Thus, the virus could mutate to a form that prefers to attach itself to the sinus passages at any time. In fact, the likelihood of a pandemic outbreak from a mutation of H5N1 in the future, according to some scientists, is as high 43%.
Further, if there was an outbreak, humans hardly possess any natural immunity to H5N1 viruses at all. Along with this, there is evidence that two of the more utilized antiviral medications ( amantadine and rimantadine ) were shown in Vietnam and Thailand to be relatively powerless against H5N1, which leaves us very little to fight with.
Even worse, it appears that the virus is becoming more capable of reaching animals than earlier strains. There have been reports of its spread to ducks (an animal that could very easily pass the virus to humans via contact), cats (only thing worse would be dogs), and even the stone marten.
Thus, the best answer to combat this problem is a vaccine. But, as is the case often in this world, that answer isn’t as easy as it sounds.
How To Survive An H5N1 Outbreak
In short, a vaccine would have to be developed.
The CDC and World Health Organization ( WHO ) have been hard at work planning for just such an outbreak. At a recent two day WHO meeting, chairman Ian Gust indicated that the first doses of such a vaccine, once a mutation was discovered in H5N1 that could pass from human to human more easily, could be available within three months. Though this is promising, it is not without problem.
Simply put, a lot of people would be dead by the time that the vaccine did reach the masses. This is the case because the vaccine really can’t be made in advance, particularly because the mutation has not occurred yet.
Thus, we don’t know completely what we’re targeting.
On an interesting note, in an effort to gain better understanding of what the world might be up against in the event of a pandemic outbreak, a professor of virology at Queen Mary’s College in Britain named John Oxford has asked to exhume the body of Sir Mark Sykes, a diplomat that died of the Spanish Flu in 1919. The hope is that they can learn something about whether or not he experienced an overly aggressive immune response where his immune system actually ended up attacking his own body.
If so, then the parallels to H5N1 might serve to help scientists figure out ways to combat the problem of outbreak before the problem occurs.
Preventative Measures for The Avian Flu
Unfortunately, these won’t help the area in question much in the case of a pandemic outbreak; but they might serve to stop the spread of a mutated virus to other areas of the world either before or after outbreak.
Bird Import Ban – At present, there is a ban on bringing birds and/ or bird products from H5N1 – affected countries. This would of course will be continued for the foreseeable future ( it also pertains to the importation of dead birds as well ).
Termination of infected poultry – Sounds terrible, but what Hong Kong did years ago in destroying 1.5 million chickens under the threat of outbreak was a valid preventative measure.
Cessation of international travel – No one has really discussed this. However, if and only if there was a pandemic outbreak, certain international flights from infected countries would likely cease immediately.
In sum, the first way to survive a Bird Flu outbreak is to hope and pray while continuing preventative practices noted above. However, if the virus does eventually mutate to a form that more easily transfers from human to human, the only answer would be a vaccine.
Would it be fast enough?
For some, definitely; but for you?
Ultimately, the only way to protect yourself in a genuine pandemic is to avoid contact with those who’re sick. That means hunkering down in a place and minimizing contact with the outside world. To be able to do that, you need supplies, equipment, food and water and so forth – in short, you need to be prepared. Learn more about prepping so that you’re ready if and when a global pandemic happens.
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my husband and I are traveling by plane to Las Vegas in March, this virus scares me, but we have thousands of $$$ invested in this trip. what precautions can we take on the plane without looking paranoid? we have face masks and hand sanitizer, anything else we can do besides freak out and cancel?
Secretive Survivalist says
Don’t cancel. The US has only seen 35 cases, so your chance of exposure is extraordinarily low. Make sensible precautions – masks and hand sanitizer are a good idea. So is disinfectant spray. Most importantly try your best not to touch public surfaces (railings, public countertops, etc) and don’t rub your nose or your eyes.
As of right now, with the number of cases that the US has, not to be morbid but your plane is more likely to fall out of the sky than for you to get the virus (unless the situation changes drastically by then). Even if you are infected, the disease is by all accounts only slightly more dangerous than the flu.
In short, take sensible precautions but don’t panic and definitely don’t cancel your trip.
I would recommend to have wet wipes (better with disinfection, like Dettol) to use it on the plane to wipe your seat (especially where you put your head and where you put your arms) and tables (both sides). I did it on my trip to Poland.
I am not an expert, but additionally, I eat 2 pieces of garlic (is good for killing viruses, maybe corona virus too :D) every evening and drink chamomile tee (good disinfection). I would also recommend to drink ginger-lemon-honey tea (fresh ginger, lemon. not the tea with the taste) at least once a day. once it helped me to boost my immune system, when I was cold for 5 times in two months.
HM Johnson says
I really appreciate that this was not alarmist as COVID-19 fatality rate does not appear to be that high. Its far more likely that if it continues to spread and spreads stateside that there will be interruptions to normal life and decreased access to services, food, and supplies. I say people need to be more prepared for this than for the virus itself. Be prepared for missed work, school closures, business closures. Even if you or your kids do not get very sick…. this virus can be deadly for people over 55. We all may want to plan to take care of less acute illness and as many of your medical problems at home because the medical systems will be saturated. Also people catch diseases in medical facilities! (50% SARS, 73% MERS) Be able to shelter in place for 2-3 weeks to not expose others if you are sick or not be exposed to people who are sick in public places. At this time I doubt there would be mandatory quarantines.
I thought this CDC handout was quite useful even though it was meant for pandemic flu:
I am Physician Assistant btw. If you need prescriptions, especially for those over 55, try to get 90 day supply or mail order *now* so you don’t have to go to places (PHARMACIES) where sick people go. I have “special” pandemic supplies but I don’t think we’ll need um. I always have tylenol, ibuprofen, afrin, benadryl, imodium, Dayquil/ nightquil cold and flu caps on hand in my medicine cabinet.
All of my neighbors are 55 and older. I already have a mental game plan to help them. I’ll probably be fine if I get sick, I’ll bounce back. They are far more vulnerable, Should this become pandemic, their vulnerability becomes my vulnerability.
Thanks for keeping it realistic.
Secretive Survivalist says
Thanks for the input, HM. We do try to stay realistic here, there are many survival/prepper sites out there that try to stoke fear no matter what in order to drive readership, but we are trying our best to present accurate information. That way when we feel something truly terrible is on the horizon, our readers might actually trust us.
Appreciate your perspective on the COVID outbreak, especially as someone in the healthcare industry.
THIS CORNOA VIRUS GOT ME REALLY SCARED . TRYING TO GOOGLE SURVIAL METHODS. I HAVE 5 KIDS. . I DONT HAVE THE MONEY TO PREPARE TO STOCK UP ON THINGS I NEED. I DONT WANT TO SEE MY FAMILY STARVE I DONT NO WAT TO DO
Secretive Survivalist says
No need to panic. In any survival situation, there’s no need to panic really, as panic will only lead to bad decision making… But in this situation in particular there’s no need to panic. The coronavirus is not all that lethal, although it does spread very well. If you don’t have money to stock up on ‘good’ survival foods, go to the supermarket and buy a bunch of the cheapest canned goods you can find. Those will last a little while and will hold you through the panic period.
The worse thing about virus is not its effects, but the fear and panic it’s causing. On the one hand, everybody should take sensible precautions – wash hands, have sanitizer and disinfectant in the house if possible, minimize interactions with crowds. On the other hand, the level of panic is almost causing more problems. It’s unnecessary to buy everything you can possibly fit in your car from the grocery store, and there are certainly people doing that right now, which is totally uncalled for.
Take moderate steps to protect your family and don’t be all that scared – even in the worse case scenario, the coronavirus has a relatively low mortality rate and in many people it’s no worse than the common cold.
If there’s something to panic about, panic about how badly the world has reacted to this ‘pandemic’ – and imagine what happens when the real one comes. That’s what you should be preparing for.
Michelle Siderio says
I am so scared….. i appreciate your info….
Of not making it a doom day disaster movie…
I suffer from extreme anxiety. So bad it is making me stupid..
your specific products helped me.. never thought of Benadrly
Again thank you……. im hanging on to your calm demeanor
But inside…. oh boy…..
You say “in the grand scheme of things, this strain, while definitely dangerous, is not incredibly lethal – latest figures show about 2-3% of people infected with it end up dying”. If your assumptions are correct and this is not contained, even a death rate of 2%, applied to the 350 million population of the US comes to 7 million deaths. I don’t believe it will kill that many in the US. As the number get worse, those most susceptible will remain in isolation. Which will give time for the development of more and faster tests, a vaccine, and better treatments. But not because it lacks lethality, but because we will fight it successfully.
Secretive Survivalist says
I agree with you 100% – obviously if EVERYBODY in the US catches the virus then it would be catastrophic. Obviously we should be doing things to prevent it. I’m just saying it’s not an end-of-the-world SHTF situation where you need to be worried about a complete breakdown of society.
I’m estimating that with sensible precautions in place, maybe a few million people end up getting the virus.
Just to be clear, I’m not saying that measures should not be taken to fight it. I’m just saying that people who are getting ready for the end of the world should know that this isn’t it.
J’ai lu avec beaucoup d’attention ce texte, et sincèrement, j’espère que les gens sont assez intelligents pour ne pas prendre toutes vos paroles comme étant réellement la science infuse !